Thursday, November 10, 2016

Take on the election autopsy

After we had a chance as a nation to mourn or celebrate, it was time to get to serious business and that has to be..why was  everybody so wrong.   I hear a lot of people blaming Nate Silver, saying the wonder child was exposed but I don't think so.  538 had Trump at a 28% shot, nobody turns the TV off when a .280 hitter is up at the plate especially one with power.   That is like turning off the TV when Darryl Strawberry is up at the plate in the bottom of the ninth.  

Another way to look at is is that nobody is willing to risk their house even if they have a 75% chance of winning.   A 25% chance is a real chance and not one we should have taken lightly

But where people were wrong were on six points.  They misread the electorate and they misread it badly on

Everybody assumed that they would as a bloc vote en masse against Trump but they didn't.   Because they are not a homogenous voting bloc, not even close.   1 in 3 Latino men voted for Trump, 1 in 4 Latino women did.  First of all, Latinos are not that easily categorized, a Cuban and a Guatemalan have virtually nothing in common.  A Dominican doesn't care if Trump builds a wall and might actually embrace the idea.  A NYC Puerto Rican is not any more or less likely to vote Trump than anybody else in NYC.   

For the ones who it should have affected, the ones living near the border...maybe there were people protecting their own jobs, they saw illegal immigration as their own NAFTA.  

Everybody thought that women would come out overwhelmingly for Hillary but they didn't and many voted for Trump because as much as we thought they would, women don't particularly like Hillary.  She is too robotic, too scripted and too unlikeable.  She is what they hate society demands them to be.. calculated and emotionless.  

Voting Booth truth serum   
People who were probably pro-Trump didn't admit it in proper company afraid they'd be labeled as racist or sexists and instead decided to stay quiet.  When they were asked who they supported they gave the canned "they are both awful" statement but when in the privacy of the voting booth they went Trump

The wealthy would support Hillary
They did not, because people who have money want to keep it and as much as Hillary was pro banking and the economy has done well under Obama, these people hate paying 30-40% in taxes and Trump promised to cut them.  People vote with the wallets and nothing gets a rich guys weiner harder than the thought of paying less taxes. 

The assumption was that by now, Obamacare would be generally liked and basically engrained in our social fiber but it hasn't.  Small business are getting crushed by the mandate and they want our from underneath it.  Whether it's real or basically just FoxNews talking points, people believe it and want it gone because they believe it hurts....

We see the reports of job increases and Obama has done admirably coming out of the Great Recession but those jobs aren't allowing the middle class to thrive.  Vacations are a pipe dream, new cars and home are illusions.   The jobs that are available for the blue collar guys are limited and stagnant and not importantly...not full time.   

But Hillary's team knew she was flawed and for all that vaunted ground game we were expecting they fell flat.  How you knew they were aware the polls looked scary for her...less than one week before the election, they sent Obama to Michigan to campaign...Michigan.   The writing was one the wall 

Sent from my iPhone

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