Take on the 98% Crimea vote

It's been three months since the uprising started in the Ukraine and a couple of weeks since Putin decided to take out his big Russian stick and basically annex the island back to mother Russia.

the history of this is probably 500 years old but since I am not going to go back that far, we know this much...

After WWII when the entirety of Europe was redrawn to placate the real muscle behind Hitler's demise, Josef Stalin, a lot of countries were forced into one position or another.    A bunch of them became got eaten up by the greater USSR and a bunch of them just became part of the greater Eastern Bloc and reinforced through he Warsaw Pact..    After WWII the Ukraine was basically engulfed into the greater Soviet state.  At some point under the great soviet flag, a little island on the Black Sea was transferred from Russia to the Ukraine but as nobody was expecting the entire USSR to collapse, this was like a father giving responsibility for the family dog to his son.  Maybe the son was going to have to walk and feed him sometimes but you better believe that the old-man was going to be picking up plenty of dog sh*t and if that mutt ever bit somebody, it would be the father getting sued.  

Fast Forward a few years and the Soviet state collapses and the Russian go through a few lean years, let's dub those the Boris years.    Putin finally takes over and when he does he brings a certain level of KGB machismo back to Russians.   He's ready to retake Mother Russia's place on the world stage and as long as they keep pumping out gas and oil, everybody sort of ignores his gestures as Napoleon-esque but he's got some clout -and a bunch of resources- so he stays in the conversation.   Everybody thinks that the world is in a big harmony but the problem is that the West is looking one way and he's looking the other and at some point, push comes to shove.

 

First they try to dip their toe in the water with Georgia, keep some power plays with Syria, Iran etc. and continue to be a bit of thorn in the side of the west when we it comes to UN resolutions.    Then when there is a public uprising in the Ukraine and the population throws out a pro-Russian prime minister for a pro-EU one, Putin decides its time to break out the big guns.. The truth is that they don't really care about Crimea and this is just a power play but it have Putin a chance to rip off his shirt and go riding horseback.  Now the West is up in arms (without actually having any desire to pick up any arms) and this hostile take-over but there are a few issues here..   He knows that NATO, and the US in particular, has no stomach for another war, so he decides to basically take the little island.  Crimea has a referendum which comes out 98% favor of leaving the Ukraine and joining Mother Russia, so with Yugoslavia in the rear view mirror he has precedence.  

the issues the West has are as follows

- if you are going to accept the ouster of a prime-minister because of that is what the public wants and it suits your needs, you can't then decide that the will of the people means nothing when it comes to deciding whether they want to be annexed.  

- if you are going to push to allow Kosovo to leave Serbia, then you can't really dis-allow the Crimean people from doing the same thing 

- if you are going to get angry and throw Russia out of your gang of 8 and make it a gang of 7, you better hope that this is enough incentive for them to change their mind because I think we seriously doubt that.  

- if you are going to try to bleed them dry by holding the money hostage of 20 or so Putin oligarch cronies, you better expect a long battle cause those guys have a lot of money and a lot of resources to get more..   This is not exactly the most honest part of the world to do business in.

But the one counter-argument which makes the most sense came to be from a journalist I met in Europe last week..   He said that the 98% referendum result is where the trouble lies.  Not because it was so overwhelming in favor of the people but exactly because it was so overwhelming.  The only places where you get 98% agreement on anything is in North Korea, Cuba and..well.. Soviet elections.   Ask 100 people what color the sky is and you can't get 98%, ask 100 dudes if Kate Hudson is hot and you can't get a 98% consensus and ask 100 college kids if they like pizza and unprotected sex and you can't get near that number. 

So, you have to take those results with a grain of salt and if you do, then maybe the answer isn't so clear after-all.

but the truth is that we don't have the stomach, money or will to do anything substantial about it, so have to accept that we'll let Putin keep taking his Russian stick out..   But realize that next is the rest of Eastern Ukraine, then maybe Estonia and then Poland..  then maybe we'll take notice..

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